So, Wacky Wild Card Weekend demolished my picks almost as horribly as Chris Clemons’ body slam of Tarvaris Jackson last Sunday. The key word being almost. I would rather (and most would agree with this) go 1-3 to start my 2009 playoff picks than throw a complete momentum-swinging interception for a touchdown, all while being ferociously slammed to the ground by a defensive end three times my size.
I was honestly contemplating whether or not I should even make picks this week. I mean, picking Tarvaris Jackson over Donovan McNabb? It was like I was under some type of spell that forced my mind to only have thoughts consisting of Adrian Peterson breaking 50-yard runs and McNabb’s old Campbell Soup commercials.
But that wasn’t the only thing that lowered my sports knowledge self-esteem; the Chargers and Cardinals surprised me in more ways than the wins themselves. They came out and they virtually proved the stat sheets wrong in almost every respect, which is why I was extremely hesitant in making picks for this week. Nevertheless, I have given in to my competitive mentality, and have come to the conclusion that 1-3 will probably be cemented in my head throughout the postseason unless I at least try and do something about it.
So, bear with me again, as I look to redeem myself, and as we take a look at this week’s playoff preview.
Saturday, Jan. 10th, 2009- 4:30 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
This game, without question, should be the most tightly contested matchup of the weekend.
Tennessee ended the season with the best record in the AFC, and Baltimore could be the hottest team in the conference and the best team to come out of the Wild Card round. These teams have both shown consistency, toughness, extraordinary defense, great rushing totals, and reliability at the quarterback position.
For the Ravens to win this game, it will obviously have to start at the defensive side of the ball, as it always does.
Chris Johnson and LenDale White will have to be neutralized in order to force Tennessee to use Kerry Collins in pressure situations. Tennesse does not want to pass often, and they know the only way to beat the Baltimore defense is to throw deep, but a deep threat at wide receiver is non-existent.
Stuffing the run is vital in this game, and the Baltimore defense is skilled and tough enough to do it with the likes of Haloti Ngata and Trevor Pryce in the trenches. However, this is still no simple task. Tennessee is seventh in the league in rushing, and they thrive on their smash and dash style of running; so Baltimore will have to swarm defensively as they did against Miami last weekend.
Joe Flacco will also require ample time in the pocket as well if the Ravens want to lengthen and close drives. The Baltimore offensive line did this well last week, and even though he performed averagely, Flacco threw no interceptions. However, Flacco was only 9 of 23 with 135 yards passing, despite great protection and a less than mediocre opposing defense to work with.
The Tennessee Titans’ interior defensive line also rushes the passer better than any team in the league, and this could be a problematic issue for Joe Flacco.
The running game for Baltimore will also have to flourish so that Joe Flacco is not put into pressure third downs or pressure drives. If the Ravens have a two-touchdown lead at half due to a steady running game, Joe Flacco will lead his team to victory because of the minimal amounts of pressure he would eventually have to face.
For Tennessee, they face all of the same goals. They must run the ball effectively with both of their runners and wear down the Raven’s 3rd ranked rushing defense, they must minimize pressure situations for Kerry Collins with steady offensive line play, and they must stop the Baltimore rushing attack.
The question is, what gives?
Well, the difference in a closely matched game such as this is quarterback play. If Joe Flacco plays as average as he did last week and the previous time these two teams faced, Baltimore will struggle. Kerry Collins has been in the playoff atmosphere and has succeeded, while Joe Flacco is playing his second playoff game on the road in front of a fired up Tennessee crowd.
Tennessee is still one of the best teams in the league, and despite the surge of the Baltimore Ravens late in the season, a rookie quarterback winning two playoff games in a row on the road is one of the toughest tasks one could ask for, and is something that has never happened.
Look for Albert Haynesworth and the rest of the Tennessee defensive line to put immense amounts of pressure on Joe Flacco and ruin his swagger, and ultimately come out with the win.
My pick: Tennessee 24, Baltimore 20
Saturday, Jan. 10th, 2009- 8:15 PM ET
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
This game, without question, should be the least tightly contested matchup of the weekend.
For starters, Carolina is undefeated at home this season, while Arizona is 3-5 on the road. Those wins by Arizona consist of the meager San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, and Seattle Seahawks.
Arizona played very well last week in their home stadium, and they appeared highly motivated, but it seems like it will be an entirely different situation on the road in unfamiliar conditions this weekend. They are known to be at the top of their game in either domes or warm weather conditions, which are both non-existent in Carolina this weekend.
Even though Arizona did well in hindering Michael Turner and the Atlanta run game last week, they are still notorious for their inability to consistently stop the run. They have held their opposition to consecutive sub-100 yard rushing games all but twice this season, so a below average performance from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart seems highly unlikely.
The Carolina Panthers are 3rd in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns on the season, and although the Carolina rushing tandem didn’t perform spectacularly the last time these teams faced, Williams rushed for over 100 yards at 6.4 yards per carry.
The Panthers uncharacteristically threw the ball more often, and did it very well. Jake Delhomme ended the game with 248 yards passing and 2 touchdowns, all while completing 20 of his 28 passes. If the Panthers stay as balanced as they were in the last contest, they will be virtually unstoppable and ready for the NFC championship game.
However, if the Cardinals play as they did last week with a balanced offensive game plan and an intensified defensive mindset, Arizona will make things tough for the Panthers.
If the past is any indication, I’m not counting on it.
My Pick: Carolina 38, Arizona 24
Sunday, Jan. 11th, 2009- 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Round 3.
Now, I hate to determine the outcome of games by simple observation, but it is blatantly obvious of what the winner of this game has to do.
Run. The. Football.
In the first contest between these teams, the New York Giants won mostly in part of a complete rushing attack.
They ran for 219 total rushing yards, including a 126-yard, 2-touchdown performance by Brandon Jacobs. This resulted in a 36-31 victory.
In the second contest, the same was true for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Brian Westbrook carried the ball a season-high 33 times, and recorded 131 yards rushing, which is his second highest total of the season. This resulted in a 20-14 victory for Philadelphia.
The Eagles exploited the weaknesses of the New York defense in that game, while the Giants did the same in the first meeting. Donovan McNabb and Eli Manning both played solid in those games as well.
The Giants have played consistently all season, and have only lost one game all season at home. They are also first in the league in rushing, and have more efficient rushing performances from week to week than that of the Eagles.
The Giants also thrive off of pressure atmospheres, and have come up big in games in which they needed to prove themselves. This weekend is no different, as those aspects will be unquestionably factored into this weekend’s game in favor of the New York Giants.
However, the Eagles have won 5 of their last 6, and have recently been running the ball at a more consistent level. Donavan McNabb has been playing exceptionally well, and even if Andy Reid decides to go with a game plan with minimal carries for Brian Westbrook, McNabb has shown he can carry this team on his back all on his own.
The Philadelphia defense played very well last week, and ruined the Vikings by putting tremendous pressure on Tarvaris Jackson.
On the other hand, that was Tarvaris Jackson. The Eagles now have Eli Manning to work with, and the trio of runners known as Earth, Wind, and Fire.
If the Giants run the ball well, they will win. They also have to stop the run, and they should, given the fact that they have a complete and healthy defense on a full week’s rest. If they don’t, McNabb will most likely be the deciding factor in who wins this game.
I hate to be simple and state the obvious, but the keys to victory in this game are simply obvious, and the New York Giants thrive off of this particular obviousness.
My Pick: New York 31, Philadelphia 23
Sunday, Jan. 11th, 2009- 4:45 PM ET
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers have somehow entered the divisional round, despite ending the regular season with a visibly mediocre 8-8 record, small playoff expectations, and some amounts of disrespect. Now that they have defeated the hottest team in the NFL in the Indianapolis Colts, the Chargers scratched out the last two entries on that list.
Now that they have chalked up a victory in the first round, the Chargers are seeking to prove that they are not just a one-week wonder when they face the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend.
These two teams did face earlier in the regular season, and both teams played well defensively, resulting in the first ever 11-10 outcome in an NFL game. The Steelers won the game, mostly because of a great overall defensive performance.
The Steelers only allowed 218 total yards, forced the only two turnovers of the game, and caused Phillip Rivers to struggle more than any other team in the course of the season.
Although they showcased a top-notch defensive premise, the Steelers played very well offensively, even though the score may not indicate so.
Willie Parker ran for over a 100 yards, while Ben Roethlisberger went for over 300 yards through the air. However, the San Diego defense prevented Pittsburgh from completing drives, causing the Steelers to only manage three field goals and 11 points, despite 410 yards of total offense. This can be problematic for the Chargers in their second meeting, as consistent stops in the red zone are hard to come by.
This was presumably San Diego’s worst statistical game of the year, excluding the appearance of the final score. They had more turnovers, allowed more yards, and made more mistakes, ultimately resulting in the game-deciding safety.
Since then, the Chargers have been more consistent in all of those areas, and are currently on a five-game winning streak.
Phillip Rivers ended the season with the best quarterback rating in the NFL, causing the offense to commit fewer turnovers, and their defense has played good as well. Running the ball has been practically impossible for teams against them in recent games, and this can work to their advantage this week.
Willie Parker has been inconsistent for Pittsburgh throughout the year because of injury, so the Chargers can look to that for an advantage. However, Parker has had an extra week to recover because of the bye week, and is reported to be at full-strength for this game.
While the Steelers have that as an upside, the Chargers will be at a disadvantage when running the ball this week. Darren Sproles will be starting, and has already fit in nicely after a gaudy 328 total yards last week; and even though he has shown shades of recent excellence, he is very unfamiliar with the conditions at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, along with the rest of the San Diego team.
The field will be very slippery and in bad conditions this weekend; conditions that only the Pittsburgh Steelers are familiar with. Sproles is more than likely to take a few tumbles on this surface because of his high-accelerating running style. This can cause difficulty in managing third downs, in turn, putting Phillip Rivers in the position to possibly force more turnovers.
If bad conditions come into play to a crucial extent, turnovers will be an important factor for both teams.
Ben Roethlisberger has said he is ready to play this week, which is tremendously good news for the Steelers, and should give them the emotional edge to come out swinging from the opening kickoff, along with the roar of the home crowd.
For San Diego to win, they must limit turnovers and rattle Roethlisberger from the get-go in order to take away some confidence and ruin his mobility.
For Pittsburgh to win, they will need to protect a now healthy Big Ben, and pave the way for Willie Parker to conclude drives.
In ugly conditions at home, that seems more than likely.
My pick: Pittsburgh 20, San Diego 13